Expect the United States to attract nearly 1.5M international students by 2030, retaining a strong hold on its position as the top study destination globally. With a co-ordinated national strategy, the U.S. has upside potential for an additional 300K students. However, capacity constraints and the potential for a change in visa policy, cast a shadow over what should represent nearly $100B in direct economic benefit for the United States at the turn of the decade.
International Education represents nearly $500B of direct expenditure and economic impact in study destinations around the world including spending on tuition, housing, insurance, food and general consumption. Beyond direct expenditure, international students are often a critical component of a destination market’s casual labor force as, just like their domestic peers, international students seek to offset their education costs and gain valuable work experience and practice-based learning throughout their studies.
Since 2018, the Global Student Flows Initiative at HolonIQ has measured, mapped and forecast the flow of international students studying at higher education institutions globally. Powered by leading global experts and economists, an open-source global flows framework and HolonIQ’s proprietary technology, the initiative maps and projects over 4,000 unique country-to-country flows each year. The Global Student Flows Initiative's 2024 US Outlook, in collaboration again this year with Shorelight and in support of the US for Success Coalition, aims to inform governments, universities, investors and firms in setting strategy, policy and allocating investment capital and resources to support the growth of international education.
2023 was a reminder of how much can change in international education in just one year. Student flows to the US almost completed their recovery from Covid while English-speaking peers absorbed enormous volumes of students post-pandemic, stretching their capacity, followed by major student visa restrictions in these same key destinations which imply a natural tailwind for the US. With strong fundamentals, some retrenchment from peer destination countries, and increasingly active recruitment efforts, the US has a bright future ahead as the world's top study destination.
Figure 1. 1 million simulations of US international student flows to 2030 and beyond.
US International Education Outlook
Download the 2024 Global Student Flows - US Outlook Report
Indian International Students in the U.S. will overtake Chinese students by more than 100K by 2030 and represent nearly 500K international students alone. Vietnam, Nigeria and Bangladesh are the next largest and fastest growing cohorts for the U.S. Expect South Korea, Japan and Saudi Arabia to continue a slow decline through to 2030.
The key fundamentals remain strongly supportive of growing international student flows - a large and growing youth population globally, steady economic growth, and a persistent gap between perceived quality of domestic higher education options in many countries and the options available abroad.
India is expected to deliver the single largest growth in absolute student numbers through to 2030, adding around 200K students over the next 6 years at a compound average growth rate of 7.3%. India delivered a 35% year on year increase from 2022 to 2023 demonstrating very strong demand that will likely moderate back to a strong and sustainable high single digit growth rate as the market absorbs such a large and sudden increase. China will continue to grow at a low single digit growth rate and still represent more than 10X the next largest market, expected to remain as South Korea unless markets such as Nigeria and Vietnam prove stronger than expected.
Figure 2. Top 20 Source Countries to the United States in 2030
Financial capacity and pricing preferences differ significantly by source country. For example, the median price for U.S. undergraduate programs paid for by Chinese students is nearly 3X that paid for by Nigerian students.
Students from different source countries have diverse program interests and represent a wide range of financial capacity. The strength, depth and demand of the students’ local labor market and local post-secondary quality, cost and return on investment options are major drivers in student decision-making about international or domestic study. Social and cultural norms, parent and family preferences, community alumni and study destination diaspora also play a large role in an individual’s personal preferences and career interests when considering where to pursue a post-secondary program.
Along with the evolution of source country demand for US international education, we see a major shift in financial capacity which will in turn drive more sophisticated pricing strategies from universities seeking to secure a growing cohort of international students. Figure 3 demonstrates that students from source countries such as China and South Korea have in aggregate enrolled in higher price point programs than students from source countries such as India and Nigeria. Undergraduate programs represent four or more years of higher price point tuition, with post graduate programs being shorter induration but are often at higher price points than undergraduate programs. Source country GDP per capita may explain much of the difference in financial capacity from these source country examples and in turn the programs, and the institutions in which they can afford to enroll.
Figure 3. Undergraduate Program Price Distribution for Students from Various Countries Studying in the United States.
Twenty-five percent of International students study in California and New York, where the dominant source country is China. The next 25% are concentrated in just four states: Texas, Massachusetts, Illinois, and Florida, where the dominant source country is India, except in Florida, where Latin America leads.
International students study across a wide array of U.S. institutions and in all states, districts, and territories. With South Asia and Africa broadly representing the largest growth opportunities, some states are better placed than others with more connectivity and experience to those markets. Texas stands out as an example here with less than 10% of the state's international student population from China but with strong 40% plus representation from India. Illinois and Massachusetts have strong China cohorts of 20-25% with India cohorts of 30-35%.
Africa is a large opportunity, however there is no U.S. state with more than 20% of their international student population from Africa. There are 20 U.S. states with Africa cohorts of between 10% and 20% of their total international student enrolment but this represents less than 10% of all international students in the US. In the top 10 states (which represent over 60% of total international students in the US), less than 1 in 20 international students are from Africa, this ratio goes to less than 1 in 30 for California and New York.
Figure 3. Total Active International Higher Education Students at US Study Destinations in May, 2024 by Source Region/Country
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